Elections in Belarus: 97% to make the realm crumble

For an outsider, Belarus remains as silent and little-known as if its dense ancient forests - the ones that once kept the Golden Horde away - were still covering up what is going on behind the scenes. Suck lack of interest is profoundly unjustified. Against all odds, political dynamics are radically shifting in « Europe’s last dictatorship », perhaps for the very first time since a quarter of a century as the country heads towards a presidential election on August 9th. 

In the aftermath of the Soviet empire’s collapse in 1990-91, the Baltic states swiftly embarked on the path of economic and political European integration with the adoption of liberal market economic systems. As for Belarus, at last sovereign nation has never truly shaken off the socio-economic legacy left after decades of Soviet occupation. Following the first and the last genuinely fair election in 1994, Belarus fell into the hands of a former collective-farm boss, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, which has led the country with Soviet-alike methods of oppression and perpetual surveillance ever since.

The timing for heading to the polls can be hardly any better. Alongside with a disastrous handling of the COVID-19 pandemic - which was no less of a mockery than once en vigueur « social parasite » tax obliging the unemployed to pay - the scars of a severe recession and years of mounting poverty create a cumulus of discontent. Beyond the economic woes, not one but several substantial candidates emerged. Yet, elections are no ordinary thing in a country like Belarus. The first and foremost challenge consists of obtaining the official registration as intimidation, arrests and criminal investigations may follow. Repressions of those who bravely speak up their political stance are common practice too. « It is better to die standing than to live on your knees  » does indeed sound paradoxical from a president who himself banned gatherings back in 2011 making it nearly impossible to protest peacefully. In a European country with the lowest rate of press freedom, questioning the president and its nomenklatura is considered a criminal offense. How many actually support Lukashenka is hard to tell as independent polls covering the election are unauthorized, albeit a popular meme of « Sasha 3% » born from an online survey carried out by private news websites may provide a glimpse. Who would Belarusians rather see leading their country in a new direction?

Meet the key players. A prominent blogger Siarhei Tikhanouski who gathered crowds determined to get rid off « the cockroach » is now detained and facing criminal charges. Widely perceived as the biggest threat with a record number of signatures collected, Viktar Babaryka, formerly in charge of  Belgazprombank, was arrested on suspicion of tax evasion and money laundering. As for the ex-ambassador to the United States and founder of High Tech Park, the Silicon Valley of Belarus, Valery Tsepkalo was disqualified after the Central Election Committee invalidated a great number of his collected signatures. At the end of the day, the system found a way to deal with each from the core of the opposition.

With all three candidates disarmed, Sviatlana Tikhanovskaya, the wife of incarcerated Siarhei Tikhanouski, stands as a symbol of hope for the whole opposition movement. A symbol of resistance too, as she is forthright about her prime intention to liberate all political prisoners and initiate a new election. Against all odds and to her own genuine surprise, she was officially registered as a candidate. The incumbent president might have as well allowed it as in his own words presidency is such a burden that « if placed on a woman, she will collapse, poor thing ». Instead, as the opposition joined forces,  a truly powerful female coalition emerged, gathering unprecedented crowds in rallies never seen before in Belarus.

Some say that Sviatlana Tikhanovskaya is not suitable for the mission, let alone winning the election. Yet, some changes will be irreversible. For Belarus breaking out of the gridlock is a matter of both moral and political urgency. In such context, Lukashenka finds himself at the crossroads: reform, suppress by ultimately turning to Russia for help in exchange of a part of sovereignty, or let people decide for themselves. Whether historic laws can render the future less unpredictable is open for debate, as well as the ramifications of the August 9th election. One thing remains crystal clear though - the new generation shall be free to turn the dreams of 1991 into reality.